Late Evening Update On Tomorrow's Potential Outbreak

 11:20 PM CDT | March 31, 2025 - A Severe Weather Outbreak is possible starting late tomorrow afternoon. Rapid moisture recovery will soon get underway, bringing 60*F dew points into Central Oklahoma by mid/late Tuesday afternoon. A dryline will push into West Central Oklahoma and be the focal point for storm development.

There are two main uncertainties with the forecast at this juncture. The first being how far east the dryline mixes during the afternoon. Some models only advance it to Elk City/Altus, while others are as far east as Watonga/Lawton. The second is if the cap will be broken during the afternoon hours. There are a few hi-res models which keep things quiet until after dark. Others break out multiple supercells along the dryline after 3:00 PM.

It helps to look at similar systems in the past and see how they behaved. That is what I have been doing off/on throughout the day. My gut feeling is that we will see at least isolated storms develop between 3:00 and 5:00 PM... once they become rooted at the surface, they will intensify rapidly as they shift northeast. Storms with strong updraft rotation will track more towards the right (eastward). I do believe the SPC will have to upgrade portions of the state to an Enhanced Risk for Very Large Hail and Tornadoes. There will be the potential for a couple Strong to even Violent Tornadoes.

Additional storms will develop Tuesday night as the frontal boundary overtakes the dryline. Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and a few Tornadoes will be possible. Best storm chances during this period will be across the southeastern half of the state. Bottom line, tomorrow is a day you will need to be very weather aware. I will start a LIVE BLOG in the morning and update throughout the day. I will try to reshare on Facebook, but due to time constraints, not every update will be reposted on social media. Bookmark the website link and check back.



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