Oklahoma Storm Watch

  11:20 PM CDT | March 31, 2025 -  A Severe Weather Outbreak is possible starting late tomorrow afternoon. Rapid moisture recovery will soon get underway, bringing 60*F dew points into Central Oklahoma by mid/late Tuesday afternoon. A dryline will push into West Central Oklahoma and be the focal point for storm development. There are two main uncertainties with the forecast at this juncture. The first being how far east the dryline mixes during the afternoon. Some models only advance it to Elk City/Altus, while others are as far east as Watonga/Lawton. The second is if the cap will be broken during the afternoon hours. There are a few hi-res models which keep things quiet until after dark. Others break out multiple supercells along the dryline after 3:00 PM. It helps to look at similar systems in the past and see how they behaved. That is what I have been doing off/on throughout the day. My gut feeling is that we will see at least isolated storms develop between 3:00 and 5:00 ...

  4:00 PM CDT | March 30, 2025 -  Our next day of interest weather-wise is Tuesday. Rapid moisture return is expected during the day ahead of a strong weather system. Temps will make it into the 70*F's and even 80*F's across much of the state. A capping inversion will exist, and the weather model differ on the strength of it. If it is able to break, isolated supercells would be possible after 4:00 PM in Western Oklahoma. All hazards will be possible as activity shifts northeast. Most models suggest that the cap may not be broken until after sunset. All hazards would still be possible, but with the loss of daytime heating, the majority of storms may be rooted just above the surface. This would temper the Tornado Risk a bit, despite favorable wind fields and sufficient instability. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded much of the state to a Slight Risk with a risk for significant severe highlighted. This appears to be for Very Large Hail up to the size of baseballs. I would not ...

9:10 PM CDT -  Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to develop across Western/Northern Oklahoma this evening. I expect the most intense activity to evolve along the southern edge of the evolving cluster. This is currently located near/SW of Elk City. Current projection would take it along the I-40 corridor over the next couple of hours, where I drew a black polygon. I honestly do not know why the SPC/NWS did not include cities such as Elk City (which is currently under a Severe T-Storm Warning), Clinton, and Weatherford in the Tornado Watch. Farther south, there is a supercell approaching Duncan and Marlow from the southwest. I have it circled in black. Large Hail and Damaging Winds are the main hazards at this time. 7:00 PM CDT -  The SPC/NWS is likely to issue a TORNADO WATCH soon for portions of Western/Central Oklahoma. Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and a few Tornadoes are all possible. Storm initiation is expected in the next hour. 9:30 AM CDT -  Th...

11:45 PM CDT | March 28, 2025 -  Updated to include a map illustrating my thoughts. See earlier discussion below for more information. 10:45 PM CDT | March 28, 2025 - Severe Risk appears to be increasing for cities like Watonga, Kingfisher, Weatherford, El Reno, Anadarko, Chickasha, and even OKC Saturday evening. The dryline is unlikely to make much eastward progress during the afternoon, and it will retreat westward with the loss of daytime heating. With the approach of a mid-level disturbance around sunset, the capping inversion should weaken for at least a couple supercells along and south of I-40. Greatest storm chances will still be across Northern Oklahoma; however, I fully anticipate an upgrade to a Slight Risk for areas farther S/SW. Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls, Damaging Winds and isolated Tornadoes will be possible. I will hopefully have my own graphic posted around 11:30 pm illustrating my above thoughts. Stay tuned.

10:15 PM CDT | March 27, 2025 -  I have made the decision to return to this website for the foreseeable future. The Patreon page will not be seeing any new content, but I will leave it up for the time being as there is plenty of good archived content. There are a few reasons for this change. One being visibility and another being more user friendly. As for the weather, the potential for Severe Weather returns to the state on Saturday. The environment will be favorable for supercells along and east of a Lawton, to Watonga, to Medford line late Saturday afternoon and evening. There will be a decent capping inversion; however, a disturbing approaching from the west is expected to weaken it. Most likely area for the cap to break for a few supercells by Saturday evening will be north of I-40. Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds, and a couple Tornadoes are possible. Far Eastern Oklahoma could see a couple Strong to Severe Storms on Sunday. Monday appears to be a lull day before...