Could We See A Hailer Or Weak Tornado On Tuesday?

 7:00 PM CDT | September 23, 2024 - Looking at the setup forecast tomorrow afternoon, I believe that we could see a couple Strong to Severe Storms. A mid-level low will be digging into the region with a weak surface low developing in Western Oklahoma. This low and the associated cold front will be the focus for shower and storm development. Before I go further, let me say that, officially, the National Weather Service does not have any risk of Severe Weather for the state tomorrow. This is their statement with the latest outlook:  

"...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time."

Obviously, my thoughts are different. The cold temperatures aloft and vorticity associated with the low will increase the instability and vertically "stretch" the updraft rotation with any cells. With partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures will make it into the upper-70*F's and low-80*F's in the warm sector. Soil evaporation from the recent rainfall should contribute to dew points around 60*F. All of these factors combined is why I believe multiple models show thunderstorm development. Classic supercell model parameters do NOT preform well with these setups. You have to know what to look for when analyzing the guidance and the setup itself. All of this is to say that I believe a Marginal Risk for coin-size Hail and even a brief/weak Tornado will exist tomorrow. The main window will be from 3:00 to 8:00 PM. Adjustments are possible tomorrow, but this graphic of mine gives you an idea.