Oklahoma Storm Watch

8:40 PM CDT UPDATE - Incredible cluster of supercells south of I-40 are producing Large Hail and Damaging Winds. There are a few areas of rotation that I am watching, especially near Anadarko.  This is a look from where I am, well to the north... Amazing. 5:05 PM CDT UPDATE - The NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a good portion of Oklahoma. It is in effect until midnight CDT.   4:25 PM CDT UPDATE - Convergence is increasing near the triple point late this afternoon. You can see the agitated cumulus field near Clinton on satellite. The area I have highlighted is where development is likely to occur between 5:00 and 6:00 PM. Surface instability is phenomenal right now across parts of the state. The latest mesoanalysis shows over 7,000 j/kg of SBCAPE near Chickasha. The environment is a powder keg and will be very supportive of Severe Weather near and east of the triple point. The marginal shear will be offset by the presence of such extreme i...

 10:45 AM CDT | June 4, 2024 - A classic severe weather triple point will set up to the west of Oklahoma City by late afternoon. An outflow boundary from last night's storms swept south and west which will help to keep the dryline from advancing into Central Oklahoma. This places the OKC metro in a very favorable position for Severe Weather. I have drawn up a graphic to illustrate my personal thoughts below. I anticipate storm development near and to the northeast of the triple point between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track eastward initially, becoming more southeasterly as updrafts mature and rotate. Instability will be high, particularly along and south of I-40 where surface-based CAPE will exceed 5,000 j/kg. This will offset only marginal shear values for supercells. The result should be similar to what we have seen in recent days - supercells capable of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail and Damaging Winds. There will be the potential for a couple Tornadoes given some backing o...

10:30 PM CDT UPDATE - Strong Storm development appears to be underway along the I-40 corridor, to the west of OKC. Activity is tracking toward the east right now, but as updrafts mature, they will track more toward the southeast while expanding. Again, Quarter to Baseball-size Hail will be possible with the most intense storms overnight with a secondary risk for Damaging Winds. A conditional risk for Severe Weather will exist tomorrow for parts of the state. More on that in the morning. Good night and stay safe, everyone. 8:55 PM CDT UPDATE - There were a few Severe Thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle and one strong storm this afternoon in Northwest Oklahoma. They have since dissipated. There appears to be a weak capping inversion located above the surface. Despite the largely favorable environment, the significant severe potential has not been realized. The SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for Central and Southern/Southeast Oklahoma tonight. The primary risk will be Quarter to Baseba...

 7:40 AM CDT | June 3, 2024 - The weather pattern has not favored anything real "tornadic" for Oklahoma since the last event in late May. Sure we have seen instances of wind damage and large hail, but the risk for tornadoes has been minimal. This may change later today and into tonight. Let me step through it... Right now, we have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 12:00 PM for North Central Oklahoma. This is courtesy of the cluster that is producing 60 mph winds and up to quarter-size hail in a few spots. They are pulsing the radars across the region in order to direct the development and outflow. The leading edge of the outflow is being pushed in the direction of Guthrie. As such, I expect storms to weaken as they push toward the OKC and areas to the west. The primary focus for additional development/intensification will be to the north and east of OKC through early afternoon. For the interesting part of this discussion... on the western flank of the residual outfl...