Tornado Outbreak Likely Across Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas on Saturday, May 25, 2024

 11:30 PM CDT | May 24, 2024 - It is going to be a very volatile weather day across the Great Plains. Confidence in widespread Severe Weather, some of which will be significant, is high. The SPC Day 2 Outlook which was issued after midday states that Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night.

This is very strong wording and they go on to say that "Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time". You can see their official outlook below.

Looking at the latest guidance, I believe that the difference with storm coverage among the models is that some are picking up on a disturbance in the jet that moves into Northwest Texas during the afternoon. As this disturbance approaches, it would likely trigger development after 3:00 PM from western North Texas through Southwest Oklahoma. Additional development is expected farther north of course, associated with the low moving into the Central Plains. I personally believe that the risk for North Texas is being underestimated. You can see my own outlook below - please keep in mind that it is just my opinion.

 As for Oklahoma, I do believe a High Risk will be warranted for parts of the state in future outlooks, as early as the 1:00 AM Day 1 update tonight. I did not add one in my own outlook because I do not want to cause confusion. If I did place one, I could make an argument that one High Risk area would be focused on South Central Oklahoma with another one focused on Kansas. We go five years without one, and we will likely see two within a month. Regardless, Supercells capable of Strong to Violent Tornadoes, Very Large to Giant Hail, and Significant Wind Gusts appear likely across the region Saturday afternoon and evening.