2024/05/18 - Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow, May 19th

 7:10 AM CDT | May 18, 2024 - Severe Weather is possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially in Northwestern Oklahoma. A very warm, moist environment will exist east of a dryline Sunday afternoon. A capping inversion will be in place, but a piece of energy that is breaking from an offshore low will move into the region toward sunset on Sunday. The strength and timing of this energy will be pivotal to just how many storms can punch through the cap late in the day. Surface heating will weaken the cap, but the extra "umph" from this energy is what will break it. It is now moving onshore southern California and will be partially sampled by the weather balloons for new model data later this morning. It will be fully sampled with this evening's balloon launches.

I have illustrated my thoughts on where the greatest risk of Severe Weather appears to be in the graphic below. Across the Enhanced Risk area, storm chances appear to be in the 40-60% range with 20-30% in the Slight Risk. Chances are less than 20% currently for those in the Marginal Risk. It is important to note that the environment itself supports an Enhanced Risk across much of the area. The question is how many storms can break through the cap and sustain themselves. Once rooted at the surface, any supercell will be capable of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds of 60-75 mph, and Tornadoes. The time-frame for Severe Weather will be from 4:00 PM to 12:00 AM with the greatest risk in the 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM period.


Aside from the Kansas/Oklahoma border, Monday will be a potential "lull" day before the risk increases on Tuesday. By that time, the main low currently offshore the US Coast will kick into the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center already has a Slight Risk for Central/Eastern Oklahoma. In all reality, the risk will likely be upgraded for parts of the state in later outlooks as confidence in the dryline location increases. We see another uptick on Thursday, where they have yet another risk area outlined.

Needless to say, we will have an active stretch of late May weather. Stay tuned!


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