2024/05/15 - Enhanced Risk Of Severe Weather Today

 10:15 AM CDT | May 15, 2024 - There is an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for portions of Oklahoma from late afternoon into tonight. I have attached the official SPC Day 1 Outlook, which was issued around 8 AM this morning below. Following it, I have posted my thoughts as well as a couple graphics to illustrate when/where I believe the risk of Severe Weather will be.


Scattered storms are expected to develop across the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles into far Western Oklahoma during the 3:00 to 5:00 PM time-frame. Additional storms may also fire near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Activity will shift toward the east and northeast. Damaging Winds of 60-70 mph will be likely with the strongest of storms with Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail and even a Tornado or two possible. The Tornado Risk will be greatest in Northern Oklahoma and far Southern Kansas.


As we get into the mid-evening hours, the low-level jet will be ramping up... Supercells and multicells will be transitioning into storm clusters. Damaging Winds of 60-75 mph, Quarter to Half Dollar-size Hail, and a couple Tornadoes will be possible. I believe there may be a more concentrated risk of Tornadoes in the vicinity of I-40 in West Central OK into the I-44 corridor of East Central Oklahoma. It ultimately depends on where the edge of the storm outflow sets up. Activity tracking along this boundary will pose the greatest risk for Damaging Winds and a couple Tornadoes during the mid and late evening hours. For this reason, I have my own Enhanced Risk a little farther south than the official SPC Day 1 Outlook.


Not everyone will see Severe Weather later today and tonight, but those who do could be dealing with some fairly significant weather. Keep an eye on the latest watches and warning into tonight. I will post a few more updates into tonight as things get underway.

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