2024/05/05 - Preliminary Severe Weather Timing & Risk Level For Monday, May 6, 2024

 10:30 PM CDT | May 5, 2024 - I have some thoughts to share on the Severe Weather Outbreak that is expected tomorrow. I am going to start with the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows, followed by a comparable event many will remember, and then my own preliminary timing and risk level of the severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk in place for a good portion of Oklahoma tomorrow with the following headline: "Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely."

I like to take a look at analog events because history is our best teacher. One very similar event, in regards to the system track and anticipated environment is May 24, 2011. You can view historical graphics here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110524. The systems are eerily similar; however, that system dug farther south than this one will. It was ultimately a rare SPC High Risk Day. The weather-maker spawned tornadoes from Kansas through North Central Texas. I would not be surprised to see the SPC issue their first High Risk Day of this decade for parts of Oklahoma tomorrow.

I have attached below a series of graphics showing the preliminary timing and risk level, based on what I am seeing and taking into account historical events. You will obviously see that I have a High Risk category for North Central Oklahoma. Again, this is just my own opinion and based on my own thoughts and experience.

Storm initiation will begin in Kansas early Monday afternoon and additional storms are expected to develop in Western Oklahoma during the 2:00-4:00 PM time-frame. Activity will be developing in an increasingly favorable environment for supercells.

Storm initiation and intensification will continue during the late afternoon and early evening hours. I believe the risk for Very Large Hail and Tornadoes will be Moderate to High. The risk for Strong Tornadoes will increase toward sunset with the ramping up of the low-level jet.

The outbreak will likely reach its peak during this period. During the 7:00 to 10:00 PM time-frame is when I believe the risk for Significant Tornadoes will be at its maximum. The risk for Severe Weather will continue late Monday night and into early Tuesday morning, gradually shifting eastward and decreasing with time.

Bottom line, it will be a VERY busy afternoon and evening in the Plains. You should make sure to have a way to receive the latest watch and warning information. In life-threatening situations, ALWAYS refer to an official weather source like the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, or your local trusted meteorologist. The information on this blog is intended to be supplemental only.