Oklahoma Storm Watch

 8:15 AM CDT | September 24, 2024 - I fully expect at least a couple Severe Storms late this afternoon and early this evening. The radar is quiet in terms of showers and thunderstorms this morning; however, there has been a lot of frequency pulsing over the last 10-12 hours. I have hand charted the signatures on the graphic below. Of course, they are still occurring with more expected over the course of the day. If you have been following this site, you know I am a believer in weather modification. The pulsing you see on radar is typically associated with charging the atmosphere through ionization. It sets the stage for thunderstorm development and intensification. The most active site has been Wichita which has been pulsing southward through Central Oklahoma and into North Texas almost nonstop for several hours. In the process, it helped storms fire in Texas during the pre-dawn hours which were not expected. No chemtrails were seen in the skies yesterday evening here in West Centr...

 7:00 PM CDT | September 23, 2024 - Looking at the setup forecast tomorrow afternoon, I believe that we could see a couple Strong to Severe Storms. A mid-level low will be digging into the region with a weak surface low developing in Western Oklahoma. This low and the associated cold front will be the focus for shower and storm development. Before I go further, let me say that, officially, the National Weather Service does not have any risk of Severe Weather for the state tomorrow. This is their statement with the latest outlook:   "...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time." Obviously, my thoughts are different. The cold t...

8:45 PM CDT | July 6, 2024 - Tomorrow will be an interesting weather day for the Sooner State. We will see an unusually strong disturbance for this time of year. Right now, a cluster or MCS (Meso-Convective System) is taking shape north of the border. This will push southeast through tomorrow morning with the best storm chances to the north of I-40. The current thinking is that the complex of storms will leave an outflow boundary in the state. With ample surface heating during the midday and afternoon hours, the environment along the boundary will be quite favorable for Severe Weather. It is unusual to see a risk for Supercells this time of year so far south... but that is what we will indeed see tomorrow. This is a loop from one of this evening's weather models. It shows the simulated radar from 10:00 PM tonight through 10:00 PM tomorrow night. Keep in mind that this is simply a weather model, and the exact radar conditions will not look exactly like this... It gives you an idea t...

8:40 PM CDT UPDATE - Incredible cluster of supercells south of I-40 are producing Large Hail and Damaging Winds. There are a few areas of rotation that I am watching, especially near Anadarko.  This is a look from where I am, well to the north... Amazing. 5:05 PM CDT UPDATE - The NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a good portion of Oklahoma. It is in effect until midnight CDT.   4:25 PM CDT UPDATE - Convergence is increasing near the triple point late this afternoon. You can see the agitated cumulus field near Clinton on satellite. The area I have highlighted is where development is likely to occur between 5:00 and 6:00 PM. Surface instability is phenomenal right now across parts of the state. The latest mesoanalysis shows over 7,000 j/kg of SBCAPE near Chickasha. The environment is a powder keg and will be very supportive of Severe Weather near and east of the triple point. The marginal shear will be offset by the presence of such extreme i...

 10:45 AM CDT | June 4, 2024 - A classic severe weather triple point will set up to the west of Oklahoma City by late afternoon. An outflow boundary from last night's storms swept south and west which will help to keep the dryline from advancing into Central Oklahoma. This places the OKC metro in a very favorable position for Severe Weather. I have drawn up a graphic to illustrate my personal thoughts below. I anticipate storm development near and to the northeast of the triple point between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track eastward initially, becoming more southeasterly as updrafts mature and rotate. Instability will be high, particularly along and south of I-40 where surface-based CAPE will exceed 5,000 j/kg. This will offset only marginal shear values for supercells. The result should be similar to what we have seen in recent days - supercells capable of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail and Damaging Winds. There will be the potential for a couple Tornadoes given some backing o...

10:30 PM CDT UPDATE - Strong Storm development appears to be underway along the I-40 corridor, to the west of OKC. Activity is tracking toward the east right now, but as updrafts mature, they will track more toward the southeast while expanding. Again, Quarter to Baseball-size Hail will be possible with the most intense storms overnight with a secondary risk for Damaging Winds. A conditional risk for Severe Weather will exist tomorrow for parts of the state. More on that in the morning. Good night and stay safe, everyone. 8:55 PM CDT UPDATE - There were a few Severe Thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle and one strong storm this afternoon in Northwest Oklahoma. They have since dissipated. There appears to be a weak capping inversion located above the surface. Despite the largely favorable environment, the significant severe potential has not been realized. The SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for Central and Southern/Southeast Oklahoma tonight. The primary risk will be Quarter to Baseba...